Beating Closing Lines Across All 4 MMA Markets
Rather than predicting a simple binary winner like public models, OEP-v1 models second-by-second state transitions (Standing Distance, Clinch, Ground Control) and minute-by-minute hazard rates across 25,000 simulated bouts per matchup to price Moneyline, Total Rounds (O/U & FGTD), Exact Method/Round Props, and Significant Strike Volume without internal contradiction.
Unified Competing-Risks Engine
25,000 Simulations / Fight
Integrates Discrete-Time Survival Hazard Matrices with Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) strike distributions and Fractional Kelly sizing.
4-Model 500-Fight Scoreboard: OEP-v1 vs. The Field
Head-to-head tracking of all 4 Octagon Edge architectures across a 500-fight championship sample—graded on Win Accuracy, Brier Calibration, Closing Line Value (CLV), and Unit ROI.
422/500
Tracked Fights Graded
76.3%
OEP-v1 500-Fight Accuracy
71.4%
Positive CLV Beat Rate
+14.8%
90-Day Verified Unit ROI
Octagon Edge Pro (OEP-v1)
25,000-Sim Competing-Risks + ZINB
322 W – 100 L (422/500)
- Brier Score:
- 0.174
- Log-Loss:
- 0.518
- CLV Beat Rate:
- 71.4%
- Prop / Total Acc:
- 68.9%
- Net Unit Yield:
- +14.8%
ML · O/U Rounds · Exact Method/Rd · Sig. Strikes
BiLSTM Recurrent Neural Net
Sequential Athlete Portrait & Fatigue
318 W – 104 L (422/500)
- Brier Score:
- 0.181
- Log-Loss:
- 0.534
- CLV Beat Rate:
- 64.2%
- Prop / Total Acc:
- 61.5%
- Net Unit Yield:
- +9.6%
Moneyline · Sequential Momentum
Quantum v2.1 Ensemble
Market-Anchored Logistic Stacker
291 W – 131 L (422/500)
- Brier Score:
- 0.192
- Log-Loss:
- 0.562
- CLV Beat Rate:
- 58.8%
- Prop / Total Acc:
- 57.2%
- Net Unit Yield:
- +5.4%
Moneyline · Consensus Method
Zero-Odds Purist v1.0
0% Market Anchor · Pure Tape & Glicko
283 W – 139 L (422/500)
- Brier Score:
- 0.204
- Log-Loss:
- 0.589
- CLV Beat Rate:
- 61%
- Prop / Total Acc:
- 59%
- Net Unit Yield:
- +7.1%
Unanchored Moneyline · Underdog Sniping
Interactive Octagon Edge Pro (OEP-v1) Simulator
Input striking/grappling differentials, finish hazards, environmental modifiers, and sportsbook odds to generate the full round-by-round survival matrix, ZINB strike projection, and Kelly stake.
3.00 Units (ML -155 · Edge +27.1%)
0.00 Units (O2.5 -145 · O1.5: 72.2%)
Exp. Time: 10.9m · Dist Share: 52%
Module A+B · Method of Victory Breakdown (%)
Competing-Risks Survival · Exact Fight Ending (%)
FGTD: 50.6%Matchup Differential & Line Controls
Environmental & Mandatory Hard-Pass Filters
Toggle cage geometry, championship rounds, or test how the 6 Mandatory Hard Pass gates protect bankroll.
High-Pace Pressure Grappler vs. Low-Volume Counter Striker
Fighter A averages 4.2 TD/15m with elite top control (3m 40s/rd) and high R3 cardio (1.08 ratio). Fighter B is a dangerous R1 sniper (62% TDD, 2.8 SLpM at distance, drops to 0.9 SLpM when wrestled).
| Market / Outcome | OEP-v1 True Prob | Sportsbook Odds | Edge (P_mod - P_mkt) | EV% | Action & Kelly Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter A Moneyline | 68.4% | -155 (58.3% no-vig) | +10.1% | +12.5% | BET: 1.90 Units |
| Fighter A by Decision | 46.2% | +140 (41.7% raw) | +4.5% | +10.9% | BET: 0.70 Units |
| Fighter A by R3 Submission | 8.5% | +1400 (6.7% raw) | +1.8% | +27.5% | SPRINKLE: 0.20 Units |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | 64.0% | -145 (59.2% raw) | +4.8% | +8.1% | PASS (Correlated w/ A Dec) |
| Fighter B Under 41.5 Sig. Strikes | 67.5% | -115 (53.5% raw) | +14.0% | +26.2% | MAX PROP BET: 1.50 Units |
90-Day Roadmap to #1 Leaderboard Status & Current Page Gap Analysis
How we dominate public tracking leaderboards (BetMMA.tips, Pikkit, Action Network) within 90 days—and what we must upgrade on our current pages to capture the #1 spot.
Months 1–3 Execution Schedule (The Weekly Release Window)
Window 1: Opening Moneyline Sniping (Module B)
Target: +5.0% to +11.0% EVRun Module B (CatBoost 0.40 + XGBoost 0.35 + Siamese NN 0.25 with Symmetry Enforcement) immediately when opening Moneylines drop on Pinnacle, Circa, and DraftKings. Opener limits are lower and lines are softest before sharp syndicate adjustments.
Window 2: Method, Round & Strike Volume Props (Modules A & D)
Target: +15.0% to +27.5% EVProp markets open 48–72 hours before fight night and are priced by bookmakers using crude career SLpM × average fight time templates. Deploy the Competing-Risks Survival Matrix and 25,000-run ZINB Strike Simulator here.
Window 3: Post-Weigh-In Physical & Neurological Audit
Target: +12.0% to +22.0% EVAudit official Friday morning scale weights and face-offs. If a fighter misses weight by >1.5 lbs or displays severe neurological dehydration, void pre-weigh-in outputs and re-run with a -18% R2/R3 cardio penalty.
Window 4: ECE, Brier & Isotonic Regression Recalibration
Target: >68.0% Positive CLV TargetCompute Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Log-Loss against the de-vigged Pinnacle closing line. When the model beats the closing line (Positive CLV) on >68% of wagers, profitability is mathematically guaranteed over a 90-day cycle.
What We Can Do With Our Current Pages to Achieve the #1 Spot
1. Live Closing Line Value (CLV) vs. Pinnacle De-Vig Tracker
Current State: Predictions page currently compares Model vs. single current market line.
Upgrade for #1: Track Opening Implied Probability vs. Closing No-Vig Probability on every locked pick in the Command Center. Leaderboards (BetMMA.tips, Pikkit, Action Network) rank sharps by CLV beat rate (>68%).
2. Expand Command Center from Binary Winner to All 4 OEP-v1 Markets
Current State: Current Predictions page focuses primarily on Moneyline & single projected method.
Upgrade for #1: Surface all 4 unified OEP-v1 outputs on every fight card: (1) Moneyline, (2) Over/Under 1.5 & 2.5 Rounds (γ=0.46), (3) Round × Method Hazard Matrix, and (4) ZINB Significant Strike Volume Medians.
3. Automated 6-Rule "Hard Pass" Capital Preservation Shield
Current State: Manual risk flags exist in Admin queue, but not all 6 quantitative rules auto-block stakes.
Upgrade for #1: Automatically enforce the 6 Mandatory Hard Pass gates (<2 Tier-1 bouts, <10d short notice, HW chalk <-190, 35+ age + 400d layoff, >1.5lb weight miss, ≥7% reverse sharp steam) to zero out Kelly stakes on trap fights.
4. Market-Specific Vig-Adjusted Fractional Kelly Staking
Current State: Flat $25 stake calculator on Predictions page.
Upgrade for #1: Scale required minimum edge with bookmaker hold: ≥3.5% edge on Favorites (0.25x Kelly), ≥4.5% on Underdogs (0.20x Kelly), ≥6.0% on Method Props (0.15x Kelly), and ≥6.5% on Strike Volume Props.
1. Core Architecture & The 5 High-Signal Feature Pillars
Every raw stat from UFCStats and regional tape is processed using Exponential Time Decay and Opponent Elo-Adjustment (landing 5.0 strikes/min against a top-5 defender is weighted 1.8× higher than against a regional debutant).
| Feature Pillar | Top Engineered Metrics | Predictive Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Striking Dynamics |
| Drives decision equity, strike volume props, and early-round KO hazard. |
| 2. Grappling & Mat Control |
| Determines whether the fight plays out at range (high strike volume) or on the canvas (clock-killing/sub hazard). |
| 3. Durability & Chin Decay |
| Identifies sudden knockouts that historical win-loss records miss. |
| 4. Cardio & Pace Decay |
| Essential for live betting, Over/Under rounds, and R3/R4/R5 prop sniping. |
| 5. Environmental Context |
| A 25ft cage contains 30.6% less floor area, increasing takedown completion by +14% and finish rates by +11%. |
2. The “Bet or Pass” Decision Matrix & Staking Protocol
Sportsbooks charge ~4.2% hold on Moneylines, ~6.5% on Over/Under Rounds, and 12%–18% on Method & Round Props. Required edge scales strictly with market variance and bookmaker hold.
| Market Type | Min. Edge (P_model - P_mkt) | Min. EV% | Max Fractional Kelly Stake | Why This Filter Exists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Favorites -110 to -275) | ≥ +3.5% | ≥ +5.0% | 0.25× Kelly (Cap: 3.0u) | Low variance, tight market hold (~4.2%); high hit rate stabilizes bankroll. |
| Moneyline (Underdogs +100 to +350) | ≥ +4.5% | ≥ +8.0% | 0.20× Kelly (Cap: 2.0u) | Protects against calibration noise in the tails. |
| Over/Under Rounds & FGTD | ≥ +5.0% | ≥ +7.5% | 0.25× Kelly (Cap: 2.5u) | Dependent on both fighters' pacing and referee stoppage tendencies (~6.5% hold). |
| Method of Victory (KO / Sub / Dec) | ≥ +6.0% | ≥ +10.0% | 0.15× Kelly (Cap: 1.5u) | Overcomes 2-way or multi-way sportsbook prop hold (8–14%). |
| Exact Round or Round + Method | ≥ +4.0% | ≥ +18.0% | 0.10× Kelly (Cap: 0.75u) | High payout (+400 to +1800), high variance; small stakes prevent drawdowns. |
| Significant Strike Over/Under | ≥ +6.5% | ≥ +9.0% | 0.20× Kelly (Cap: 1.5u) | Softer algorithmic lines at books; massive edge when fight duration is mispriced. |