WELTERWEIGHT
Included with every membership
Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
Active subscriptions, free trials and Founder members all have access.
Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
Select any fight on the card to run predictions, compare records, and review style matchups.
Main event5 rounds · WELTERWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley
WELTERWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Mike Malott | Fighter comparison | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2-1 | Pro record | 21-8-0 |
| #11 | Ranking | #9 |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 6′ 1″ · 185 cm | Height | 5′ 10″ · 178 cm |
| 73″ · 185 cm | Reach | 76″ · 193 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| WELTERWEIGHT | Division | WELTERWEIGHT |
| 171 lb · Made weight | Weigh-in | 170.5 lb · Made weight |
| 171.00 lb | Listed weight | 171.00 lb |
| Canada | Country | USA |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Niagara Top Team | Gym | STL Boxing |
| MMA | Fighting style | Freestyle |
| Cleveland, United States | Birthplace | United States |
| 41″ · 104 cm | Leg reach | 40″ · 102 cm |
| Apr. 9, 2022 | UFC debut | Aug. 8, 2020 |
Mike Malott · UFC / API-Sports / Sportradar / SportsDataIO · Checked Oct 11, 2026Official profile
Joaquin Buckley · UFC / API-Sports / Sportradar / SportsDataIO · Checked Oct 11, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
No verified bookmaker prices are available for this matchup yet.
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
4.023.62
Strikes landed
/ min
3.093.10
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
48%36%
Striking accuracy
Percent
56%59%
Striking defense
Percent
1.631.43
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
57%70%
Takedown defense
Percent
0.650.08
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
86%71%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Mike Malott
KO / TKO43%
Submission43%
Decision14%
Joaquin Buckley
KO / TKO71%
Submission0%
Decision29%
Mike Malott
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Joaquin Buckley
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · High Volatility / Coin-Toss
Near 50/50 toss-up with insufficient edge to justify exposure.
The model’s pick
Mike Malott
KO / TKO · Round 1
53%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Lean / Low Confidence
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
53.1%
Estimate for Mike Malott
Model vs. market
Unavailable
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
57.0%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Mike Malott
53.1%KO / TKO22.8%
Submission22.8%
Decision7.6%
Joaquin Buckley
46.9%KO / TKO29.1%
Submission6.1%
Decision11.6%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Not available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing · market missing
Why this fighter?
- •Mike Malott has the stronger overall fighter-rating profile.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Joaquin Buckley forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-113
Market line
—
Model vs. market
—
All Access includes Prop Edge and every current feature for $8.99/month.
Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap157.00
rating Deviation Avg305.00
latent Skill Uncertainty44%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge41%
grappling Edge16%
adjusted Striking Adv6%
adjusted Takedown Adv-13%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A38%
close Fight Risk95%
split Decision Risk64%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev29%
Engine percentages refer to Mike Malott. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 93% · Uncertainty 22%