WOMENS FLYWEIGHT
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Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
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3 rounds · WOMENS FLYWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
WOMENS FLYWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Katlyn Cerminara | Fighter comparison | Jamey-Lyn Horth |
|---|---|---|
| 18-6-0 | Pro record | 9-3-0 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 36 | Age | 36 |
| 5′ 9″ · 175 cm | Height | 5′ 7″ · 170 cm |
| 68″ · 173 cm | Reach | 66″ · 168 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| WOMENS FLYWEIGHT | Division | WOMENS FLYWEIGHT |
| Not posted | Weigh-in | Not posted |
| 125.00 lb | Listed weight | 126.00 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Renzo Gracie Academy | Gym | The Sound Martial Arts |
| MMA | Fighting style | Kickboxer |
| Quakertown, United States | Birthplace | Vancouver, Canada |
| 42″ · 107 cm | Leg reach | 42″ · 107 cm |
| Jul. 14, 2016 | UFC debut | Apr. 29, 2023 |
Katlyn Cerminara · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Jamey-Lyn Horth · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
No verified bookmaker prices are available for this matchup yet.
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
4.583.80
Strikes landed
/ min
4.482.64
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
35%48%
Striking accuracy
Percent
62%64%
Striking defense
Percent
0.310.98
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
50%81%
Takedown defense
Percent
0.310.16
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
17%67%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Katlyn Cerminara
KO / TKO11%
Submission6%
Decision83%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
KO / TKO44%
Submission22%
Decision33%
Katlyn Cerminara
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Jamey-Lyn Horth)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Jamey-Lyn Horth to win (56% vs 56%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Win Probability56%
Fair Line-130
Projected MethodKO / TKO
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Win Probability56%
Intrinsic Fair Line-127
Stylistic MethodDecision
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Edge Below Threshold
Projected edge does not satisfy institutional risk/reward hurdles.
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Jamey-Lyn Horth
KO / TKO · Round 1
56%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Lean
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
56.5%
Estimate for Jamey-Lyn Horth
Model vs. market
Odds pending
Sportsbook lines not yet open
Input coverage
92.0%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Katlyn Cerminara
43.5%KO / TKO4.8%
Submission2.4%
Decision36.3%
Jamey-Lyn Horth
56.5%KO / TKO25.1%
Submission12.6%
Decision18.8%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Not available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
market missing
Why this fighter?
- •The style matchup leans toward Jamey-Lyn Horth when the striking, grappling and defensive inputs are combined.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Katlyn Cerminara forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Statistical ensemble: fighter ratings, matchup differences and available market probabilities. Method estimates are normalized to the final winner estimate; accuracy and calibration require forward validation.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-130
Market line
—
Model vs. market
—
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap-57.00
rating Deviation Avg260.00
latent Skill Uncertainty37%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge-1.06
grappling Edge11%
adjusted Striking Adv21%
adjusted Takedown Adv-43%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A77%
close Fight Risk91%
split Decision Risk61%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev24%
Engine percentages refer to Katlyn Cerminara. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 92% · Uncertainty 12%