MIDDLEWEIGHT
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Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
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Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
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3 rounds · MIDDLEWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
MIDDLEWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Kyle Daukaus | Fighter comparison | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| 17-4-0 | Pro record | 17-11-0 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 6′ 3″ · 191 cm | Height | 6′ 1″ · 185 cm |
| 76″ · 193 cm | Reach | 74″ · 188 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| MIDDLEWEIGHT | Division | MIDDLEWEIGHT |
| Not posted | Weigh-in | Not posted |
| 186.00 lb | Listed weight | 185.00 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| The Forge MMA | Gym | Kill Cliff FC |
| Not available | Fighting style | Striker |
| Philadelphia, United States | Birthplace | Gatineau, Canada |
| 43″ · 109 cm | Leg reach | 42.5″ · 108 cm |
| Jun. 27, 2020 | UFC debut | Oct. 11, 2026 |
Kyle Daukaus · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Marc-Andre Barriault · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
-250
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+190
-230
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+190
-225
BetMGM
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+185
-230
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+190
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
3.165.65
Strikes landed
/ min
2.945.94
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
53%47%
Striking accuracy
Percent
42%49%
Striking defense
Percent
1.970.34
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
79%68%
Takedown defense
Percent
1.970.09
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
82%71%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Kyle Daukaus
KO / TKO12%
Submission71%
Decision18%
Marc-Andre Barriault
KO / TKO65%
Submission6%
Decision29%
Kyle Daukaus
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Marc-Andre Barriault
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Kyle Daukaus)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Kyle Daukaus to win (58% vs 53%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Kyle Daukaus
Win Probability58%
Fair Line-140
Projected MethodSubmission
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Kyle Daukaus
Win Probability53%
Intrinsic Fair Line-111
Stylistic MethodSubmission
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Negative Expected Value
Market line is heavily inflated compared to model estimate (-8.8% negative edge).
Market Edge
-8.8%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Kyle Daukaus
Submission · Round 1
58%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Pass
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
58.3%
Estimate for Kyle Daukaus
Model vs. market
-8.8 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
63.0%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Kyle Daukaus
58.3%KO / TKO6.9%
Submission41.2%
Decision10.3%
Marc-Andre Barriault
41.7%KO / TKO27.0%
Submission2.5%
Decision12.3%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing
Why this fighter?
- •The combined estimate favors Kyle Daukaus after accounting for the available model and market inputs.
- •The model and the market disagree by about 8.8 points, which is worth watching.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Marc-Andre Barriault forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-140
Market line
-204
Model vs. market
-8.8 pts
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap0%
rating Deviation Avg350.00
latent Skill Uncertainty50%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge51%
grappling Edge1.71
adjusted Striking Adv-1.67
adjusted Takedown Adv56%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A42%
close Fight Risk95%
split Decision Risk64%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev29%
Engine percentages refer to Kyle Daukaus. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 96% · Uncertainty 18%