WELTERWEIGHT
Included with every membership
Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
Active subscriptions, free trials and Founder members all have access.
Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
Select any fight on the card to run predictions, compare records, and review style matchups.
Main event5 rounds · WELTERWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley
WELTERWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Mike Malott | Fighter comparison | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2-1 | Pro record | 21-8-0 |
| #11 | Ranking | #9 |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 6′ 1″ · 185 cm | Height | 5′ 10″ · 178 cm |
| 73″ · 185 cm | Reach | 76″ · 193 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| WELTERWEIGHT | Division | WELTERWEIGHT |
| 171 lb · Made weight | Weigh-in | 170.5 lb · Made weight |
| 171.00 lb | Listed weight | 171.00 lb |
| Canada | Country | USA |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Niagara Top Team | Gym | STL Boxing |
| MMA | Fighting style | Freestyle |
| Cleveland, United States | Birthplace | United States |
| 41″ · 104 cm | Leg reach | 40″ · 102 cm |
| Apr. 9, 2022 | UFC debut | Aug. 8, 2020 |
Mike Malott · UFC / API-Sports / Sportradar · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Joaquin Buckley · UFC / API-Sports / Sportradar · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
-130
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+102
-128
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+108
-140
BetMGM
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+115
-125
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+105
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
4.023.62
Strikes landed
/ min
3.093.10
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
48%36%
Striking accuracy
Percent
56%59%
Striking defense
Percent
1.631.43
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
57%70%
Takedown defense
Percent
0.650.08
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
86%71%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Mike Malott
KO / TKO43%
Submission43%
Decision14%
Joaquin Buckley
KO / TKO71%
Submission0%
Decision29%
Mike Malott
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Joaquin Buckley
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Mike Malott)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Mike Malott to win (53% vs 54%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Mike Malott
Win Probability53%
Fair Line-114
Projected MethodKO / TKO
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Mike Malott
Win Probability54%
Intrinsic Fair Line-115
Stylistic MethodSubmission
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · High Volatility / Coin-Toss
Near 50/50 toss-up with insufficient edge to justify exposure.
Market Edge
-0.2%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Mike Malott
KO / TKO · Round 1
53%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Lean / Low Confidence
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
53.3%
Estimate for Mike Malott
Model vs. market
-0.3 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
63.0%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Mike Malott
53.3%KO / TKO22.8%
Submission22.8%
Decision7.6%
Joaquin Buckley
46.8%KO / TKO29.0%
Submission6.1%
Decision11.6%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing
Why this fighter?
- •Mike Malott has the stronger overall fighter-rating profile.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Joaquin Buckley forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-114
Market line
-115
Model vs. market
-0.3 pts
All Access includes Prop Edge and every current feature for $8.99/month.
Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap157.00
rating Deviation Avg305.00
latent Skill Uncertainty44%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge41%
grappling Edge16%
adjusted Striking Adv6%
adjusted Takedown Adv-13%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A38%
close Fight Risk95%
split Decision Risk64%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev28%
Engine percentages refer to Mike Malott. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 93% · Uncertainty 21%