LIGHTWEIGHT
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3 rounds · LIGHTWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo
LIGHTWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Nate Landwehr | Fighter comparison | Mandel Nallo |
|---|---|---|
| 18-8-0 | Pro record | 14-4-0 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 38 | Age | 37 |
| 5′ 9″ · 175 cm | Height | 6′ 0″ · 183 cm |
| 72″ · 183 cm | Reach | 75″ · 191 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| LIGHTWEIGHT | Division | LIGHTWEIGHT |
| Not posted | Weigh-in | Not posted |
| 146.00 lb | Listed weight | 155.00 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| MMA Masters - Miami, FL | Gym | Tristar Gym - Montreal |
| Not available | Fighting style | Kickboxer |
| Clarksville, United States | Birthplace | North Vancouver, Canada |
| 39″ · 99 cm | Leg reach | 46.5″ · 118 cm |
| Jan. 25, 2020 | UFC debut | Apr. 18, 2026 |
Nate Landwehr · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Mandel Nallo · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
+230
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-310
+220
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-270
+220
BetMGM
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-275
+230
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-285
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
5.558.26
Strikes landed
/ min
5.965.03
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
46%58%
Striking accuracy
Percent
51%54%
Striking defense
Percent
0.730.00
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
72%100%
Takedown defense
Percent
0.730.00
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
61%100%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Nate Landwehr
KO / TKO50%
Submission11%
Decision39%
Mandel Nallo
KO / TKO57%
Submission43%
Decision0%
Nate Landwehr
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Mandel Nallo
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Mandel Nallo)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Mandel Nallo to win (63% vs 56%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Mandel Nallo
Win Probability63%
Fair Line-170
Projected MethodDecision
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Mandel Nallo
Win Probability56%
Intrinsic Fair Line-130
Stylistic MethodKO / TKO
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Negative Expected Value
Market line is heavily inflated compared to model estimate (-7.4% negative edge).
Market Edge
-7.4%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Mandel Nallo
Decision · Round 3
63%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Pass
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
63.0%
Estimate for Mandel Nallo
Model vs. market
-7.3 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
58.9%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Nate Landwehr
37.0%KO / TKO18.5%
Submission4.1%
Decision14.4%
Mandel Nallo
63.0%KO / TKO22.5%
Submission16.9%
Decision23.6%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing
Why this fighter?
- •The style matchup leans toward Mandel Nallo when the striking, grappling and defensive inputs are combined.
- •The combined estimate favors Mandel Nallo after accounting for the available model and market inputs.
- •The model and the market disagree by about 7.3 points, which is worth watching.
What could change the outcome
There is a lot of uncertainty here. Nate Landwehr has a realistic path to flip this fight, so this is not a strong-confidence spot.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-170
Market line
-237
Model vs. market
-7.3 pts
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap105.00
rating Deviation Avg305.00
latent Skill Uncertainty44%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge-3.64
grappling Edge51%
adjusted Striking Adv-1.49
adjusted Takedown Adv7%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A73%
close Fight Risk95%
split Decision Risk64%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev29%
Engine percentages refer to Nate Landwehr. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 80% · Uncertainty 32%