HEAVYWEIGHT
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Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
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Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
Select any fight on the card to run predictions, compare records, and review style matchups.
3 rounds · HEAVYWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Jhonata Diniz vs. Tanner Boser
HEAVYWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Jhonata Diniz | Fighter comparison | Tanner Boser |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2-0 | Pro record | 22-11-1 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 34 | Age | 35 |
| 6′ 4″ · 193 cm | Height | 6′ 2″ · 188 cm |
| 79.5″ · 202 cm | Reach | 75.5″ · 192 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| HEAVYWEIGHT | Division | HEAVYWEIGHT |
| Not posted | Weigh-in | Not posted |
| 257.00 lb | Listed weight | 204.50 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Not available | Gym | Bulldozer MMA |
| Kickboxer | Fighting style | Karate |
| Curitiba, Brazil | Birthplace | Bonnyville, Canada |
| 41″ · 104 cm | Leg reach | 43″ · 109 cm |
| Apr. 27, 2024 | UFC debut | Jul. 27, 2019 |
Jhonata Diniz · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Tanner Boser · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
-260
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+196
-235
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+195
-250
BetMGM
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+200
-230
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+190
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
3.894.82
Strikes landed
/ min
3.623.00
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
56%54%
Striking accuracy
Percent
57%58%
Striking defense
Percent
0.000.00
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
70%70%
Takedown defense
Percent
0.000.00
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
78%64%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Jhonata Diniz
KO / TKO78%
Submission0%
Decision22%
Tanner Boser
KO / TKO55%
Submission9%
Decision36%
Jhonata Diniz
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Tanner Boser
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Jhonata Diniz)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Jhonata Diniz to win (57% vs 51%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Jhonata Diniz
Win Probability57%
Fair Line-135
Projected MethodKO / TKO
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Jhonata Diniz
Win Probability51%
Intrinsic Fair Line-104
Stylistic MethodKO / TKO
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Negative Expected Value
Market line is heavily inflated compared to model estimate (-10.1% negative edge).
Market Edge
-10.1%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Jhonata Diniz
KO / TKO · Round 1
57%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Pass
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
57.4%
Estimate for Jhonata Diniz
Model vs. market
-10.1 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
58.9%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Jhonata Diniz
57.4%KO / TKO38.8%
Submission7.5%
Decision11.1%
Tanner Boser
42.6%KO / TKO23.2%
Submission3.9%
Decision15.5%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing
Why this fighter?
- •Jhonata Diniz has the stronger overall fighter-rating profile.
- •The model and the market disagree by about 10.1 points, which is worth watching.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Tanner Boser forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-135
Market line
-208
Model vs. market
-10.1 pts
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap159.00
rating Deviation Avg305.00
latent Skill Uncertainty44%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge-1.55
grappling Edge0%
adjusted Striking Adv-44%
adjusted Takedown Adv0%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A41%
close Fight Risk95%
split Decision Risk63%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev29%
Engine percentages refer to Jhonata Diniz. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 89% · Uncertainty 25%