MIDDLEWEIGHT
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Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
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Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
Select any fight on the card to run predictions, compare records, and review style matchups.
3 rounds · MIDDLEWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Nick Galanti vs. Julien LeBlanc
MIDDLEWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Nick Galanti | Fighter comparison | Julien LeBlanc |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0-0 | Pro record | 10-3-0 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 28 | Age | 34 |
| Not available | Height | 6′ 2″ · 188 cm |
| Not available | Reach | 74.5″ · 189 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| MIDDLEWEIGHT | Division | MIDDLEWEIGHT |
| Not posted | Weigh-in | Not posted |
| Not available | Listed weight | 185.00 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Not available | Gym | Patenaude Martial Arts, Kill Cliff FC |
| Not available | Fighting style | Not available |
| Howell Township, United States | Birthplace | Ottawa, Canada |
| Not available | Leg reach | 46.5″ · 118 cm |
| Oct. 17, 2026 | UFC debut | Apr. 18, 2026 |
Nick Galanti · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Julien LeBlanc · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
-650
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+420
-575
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+425
-600
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+440
-590
BetRivers
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
+400
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
13.711.69
Strikes landed
/ min
1.712.96
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
80%67%
Striking accuracy
Percent
—46%
Striking defense
Percent
0.000.00
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
——
Takedown defense
Percent
0.000.00
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
—80%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Nick Galanti
KO / TKONot available
SubmissionNot available
DecisionNot available
Julien LeBlanc
KO / TKO40%
Submission40%
Decision20%
Nick Galanti
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Julien LeBlanc
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Nick Galanti)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Nick Galanti to win (75% vs 69%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Nick Galanti
Win Probability75%
Fair Line-308
Projected MethodDecision
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Nick Galanti
Win Probability69%
Intrinsic Fair Line-225
Stylistic MethodDecision
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Edge Below Threshold
Projected edge does not satisfy institutional risk/reward hurdles.
Market Edge
-6.5%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Nick Galanti
Decision · Round 3
75%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Lean
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
75.5%
Estimate for Nick Galanti
Model vs. market
-6.5 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
38.5%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Nick Galanti
75.5%KO / TKO18.9%
Submission11.3%
Decision45.3%
Julien LeBlanc
24.5%KO / TKO9.8%
Submission9.8%
Decision4.9%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing · limited stat coverage · high uncertainty
Why this fighter?
- •The style matchup leans toward Nick Galanti when the striking, grappling and defensive inputs are combined.
- •The combined estimate favors Nick Galanti after accounting for the available model and market inputs.
- •The model and the market disagree by about 6.5 points, which is worth watching.
What could change the outcome
There is a lot of uncertainty here. Julien LeBlanc has a realistic path to flip this fight, so this is not a strong-confidence spot.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-308
Market line
-453
Model vs. market
-6.5 pts
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap0%
rating Deviation Avg350.00
latent Skill Uncertainty50%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge13.27
grappling Edge0%
adjusted Striking Adv6.64
adjusted Takedown Adv0%
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A28%
close Fight Risk85%
split Decision Risk57%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev33%
Engine percentages refer to Nick Galanti. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 70% · Uncertainty 46%