BANTAMWEIGHT
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Find the model’s strongest winner pick.
Compare confirmed upcoming fights in the next 30 days by the model’s estimated win chance.
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Entire Fight Card13 Confirmed Bouts
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3 rounds · BANTAMWEIGHT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
Steven Koslow vs. Chad Anheliger
BANTAMWEIGHT
Run the fight model to see its winner, win chance, and method and round when the data supports them.
Full tale of the tape · stats, recent fights & career pay
The matchup, at a glance
Tale of the tape
| Steven Koslow | Fighter comparison | Chad Anheliger |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1-0 | Pro record | 13-8-0 |
| Not ranked / unavailable | Ranking | Not ranked / unavailable |
| No confirmed results available | Recent results | No confirmed results available |
| 26 | Age | 38 |
| 5′ 7.5″ · 171 cm | Height | 5′ 6″ · 168 cm |
| 69″ · 175 cm | Reach | 64.5″ · 164 cm |
| Not available | Stance | Not available |
| BANTAMWEIGHT | Division | BANTAMWEIGHT |
| 137.5 lb · Missed weight | Weigh-in | 135.5 lb · Made weight |
| 136.00 lb | Listed weight | 135.00 lb |
| Not available | Country | Not available |
| Not available | Fights out of | Not available |
| Not available | Gym | Champions Creed MMA |
| Not available | Fighting style | Freestyle |
| Jacksonville, United States | Birthplace | Kelowna, Canada |
| 39″ · 99 cm | Leg reach | 37″ · 94 cm |
| Dec. 10, 2022 | UFC debut | Feb. 19, 2022 |
Steven Koslow · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Chad Anheliger · UFC / API-Sports · Checked Oct 12, 2026Official profile
Market snapshot
Moneyline odds
Bookmaker prices, separate from our model prediction. Check the timestamp.
-113
FanDuel
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-113
-105
Bovada
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-115
+110
BetMGM
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-130
-110
DraftKings
10/12/2026, 12:06:11 PM
-110
Striking & grappling
How they stack up
0.773.11
Strikes landed
/ min
3.732.76
Strikes absorbed
/ min · Lower is better
38%46%
Striking accuracy
Percent
40%54%
Striking defense
Percent
5.280.68
Takedowns landed
/ 15 min
—38%
Takedown defense
Percent
1.060.51
Submission attempts
/ 15 min
100%77%
Wins by finish
Percent
How they win
Finishing styles
Share of recorded career wins by method.
Steven Koslow
KO / TKO0%
Submission100%
Decision0%
Chad Anheliger
KO / TKO54%
Submission23%
Decision23%
Steven Koslow
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Chad Anheliger
Up to five latest confirmed fights in our records · newest first
No confirmed results available
Follow the money
Career purses & pay
Sourced fight-pay subtotals. Official, reported, and estimated amounts stay separate; private pay and undisclosed endorsements are not included.
Champion vs. Challenger Architecture
Model Engine Comparison
Compare our market-anchored neural network against the unanchored Zero-Odds Purist tape model.
Models in Full Agreement on Winner (Steven Koslow)
Both the market-anchored ensemble and pure tape model project Steven Koslow to win (52% vs 53%). Agreement reinforces confidence.
CHAMPION
Quantum Neural Network v2.1
Champion Model · Sharp Market Anchored
PASS
Projected Winner
Steven Koslow
Win Probability52%
Fair Line-108
Projected MethodSubmission
Architecture Weights:
• 30% - 38% XGBoost / Glicko Latent Skill
• 30% - 38% Opponent-Adjusted Tactical Differentials
• 35% - 40% Sharp Closing Book Consensus
"Institutional Bayesian stacking anchored to sharp market efficiency to eliminate recency bias."
TAPE PURIST
Zero-Odds Purist (Stylistic / Tape)
Challenger Model · 0% Market Influence
PASS
Projected Winner
Steven Koslow
Win Probability53%
Intrinsic Fair Line-112
Stylistic MethodSubmission
Architecture Weights:
• 55% XGBoost / Glicko Intrinsic Skill Profile
• 45% Striking Pace, TD Defense & Durability Decay
• 0% (Completely Independent of Public Betting Lines)
"Unfiltered stylistic & biometric tape evaluation completely independent of public betting volume or line movements."
PASS
Action Cautioned
Pass · Edge Below Threshold
Projected edge does not satisfy institutional risk/reward hurdles.
Market Edge
+2.9%
Neural Net Pick (Market-Anchored)
Steven Koslow
Submission · Round 1
52%
Estimated win chance
Confidence: Lean
THE MATCHUP, AT A GLANCE
Inside the prediction
Model win chance
51.9%
Estimate for Steven Koslow
Model vs. market
+2.9 pts
Difference from consensus probability
Input coverage
58.9%
Coverage score—not historical accuracy
Paths to victory
Each percentage estimates that fighter winning by that method. The three paths on each side add up to that fighter’s win chance.
Steven Koslow
51.9%KO / TKO7.0%
Submission28.0%
Decision16.8%
Chad Anheliger
48.1%KO / TKO25.9%
Submission11.1%
Decision11.1%
Method and round projections are approximate. Estimated confidence has not yet been validated against a separate chronological test set.
Data sources & coverage
- Schedule
- API-Sports
- Fighter statistics
- UFC profiles / UFC profiles
- Market comparison
- Available
- SportsDataIO
- Evaluated when verified data is available
ratings missing
Why this fighter?
- •The style matchup leans toward Steven Koslow when the striking, grappling and defensive inputs are combined.
What could change the outcome
The biggest risk is Chad Anheliger forcing the fight away from the matchup pattern the model expects.
Partial OEP-v2.0 input coverage; confidence reduced and data-quality flags attached.
PASS: probabilistic research output, not a guarantee, financial advice or a claim of certainty.
Odds & Prop Edge
Model fair line
-108
Market line
+104
Model vs. market
2.9 pts
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Get All AccessSupporting model details
Fighter skill
FORGE
rating Gap-71.00
rating Deviation Avg305.00
latent Skill Uncertainty44%
momentum Edge0%
Style matchup
PULSE
striking Edge-3.31
grappling Edge3.34
adjusted Striking Adv-1.51
adjusted Takedown Adv3.04
Combined verdict
VERDICT
decision Probability A24%
close Fight Risk88%
split Decision Risk59%
Shadow only · not in final pick
ORACLE
posterior Std Dev29%
Engine percentages refer to Steven Koslow. ORACLE is a shadow estimate and does not affect the pick. Model version: OEP-v2.1-Integrity · Agreement 88% · Uncertainty 25%